Tue 4 Oct 2011
Breaking Bad Season 4 Finale – Predictions
Posted by Gourmet Spud under Gourmet Spud's reflections[39] Comments
SPOILERS APLENTY!
Walt poisoned Brock. Here’s why:
- Walt snapped when Skyler, in giving the nest egg to Ted, took his only way out. The maniacal cackling was him finally breaking.
- At that point, it was all laid bare: it’s Gus or Walt (and Walt’s family, including his infant daughter). Walt had to play all of his cards.
- His only way to get to Gus was through Jesse.
- The idea of poisoning Brock was planted, as Jesse intuitively observed, when Walt saw Brock happily playing video games on the couch at Jesse’s place.
- It was decided upon when Walt spun the gun for a third time, and it stopped on a plant, a harmless fixture in the background.
- Walt was off-screen almost the entirety of the last episode. We were led to believe he was holed up at home, but there is a narrative gap that can be filled.
- Walt knew that Jesse would ultimately agree that Gus was the only one capable of having a child killed. After all, he had done it before.
- And remember Jane. He’s done this to Jesse before, albeit indirectly. This is the next, chillingly logical step.
- Gus therefore dies. The final 18 episodes are Walt in some form of ragged command of the industry, with the cartel out the way. The main conflict is Walt v. Jesse v. Hank.
This would be the ultimate, and internally consistent, turn towards super-villainy for Walt. The one Vince Gilligan has always spoken about i.e. how do you turn Mr. Chips into Scarface?
Prove me wrong, children! Prove me wrong!

October 4th, 2011 at 7:30 am
When it first happened I just assumed it was Gus since he said there would be a response to not letting him kill Walt. But I’m leaning towards Brock getting the cigarette himself seems to be the easiest way for it to happen.
October 4th, 2011 at 7:32 am
Yes, for sure the easiest way. But a boy can dream, Matt!
October 4th, 2011 at 8:43 am
Walt coming up with an elaborate, airtight scheme like this doesn’t jibe with his style. Walt’s a fast thinker: a reactor, an improvisor. What he’s not, and the series backs me up, is a guy who can plan, execute and manage any type of scheme.
That being said, I was 100% certain Gus poisoned Brock – after watching the episode twice and reading this, I am now 80% Gus.
October 4th, 2011 at 9:02 am
I guess I just think the airtight scheme he’d have to come up with is finding a way to poison Brock, which he could conceivably do. It’s less convoluted than Gus poisoning Brock because he knew it would lead Jesse to kill Walt.
I’m thinking this dawned on Gus when he was in the parking lot, which caused him to turn around.
October 4th, 2011 at 9:13 am
Agree 100% that the “Gus discovered death cig, had it stolen, sent Tyrus to kid’s house, quickly poisoned him” idea is way too convoluted. Also agree 100% that Walt killing Brock is a pretty detailed (not to mention really awful and unexpected lethal) scheme for him to cook up.
Unless they’re gonna go with the final season storyline of “Walt’s brain is officially broken,” I’m leaning towards “kid stole and smoked the cig himself” or “kid has an unrelated disease and now everyone is in a tizzy.”
October 4th, 2011 at 9:15 am
I think it’s a good theory, but I think there are several key questions still remaining:
1. If it’s ricin, why did it act so quickly, when Walt had earlier said it would take over 24 hours to manifest symptoms? Is it just because Brock is so much smaller than Tuco?
2. If it was the ricin, how did Walt get Jesse’s cigarette pack away from him long enough to remove the magic poison-y cigarette, and put the cigarette pack back in Jesse’s pocket without Jesse realizing it? (and remember, Jesse said he saw the magic poison cigarette in the pack the morning after Walt came over and saw Brock playing video games at Jesse’s)
3. If it wasn’t ricin, then why was the magic poison cigarette missing?
I still think it’s probably just as likely that it was Walt as it was Gus, but I think there are problems with either theory at this point.
October 4th, 2011 at 9:17 am
Agreed. And like someone on Twitter said, the writers will probably just completely blind side us anyway.
It’s so awesome to have a show this good on tv.
October 4th, 2011 at 9:29 am
I like this, but the one flaw in this theory is when would Walt have had access to Jesse’s pack of cigarettes, and more importantly, why would Walt have not just synthesized his own batch?
My very first thought was, OK, the kid found the pack of smokes and stole one (as kids that age will do)…but if that happened, he would have smoked it, and not extracted the poison and added it to his food. Would smoking it have caused the same reaction? Would that cigarette have even burned? This is why I quickly dismissed this possibility…but with this show, who knows?!?
October 4th, 2011 at 9:36 am
My favorite theory, courtesy of an AV Club commenter is that the series will end with Walt realizing Jane was actually grown-up, time-travelling Holly.
October 4th, 2011 at 10:43 am
Lovely theory and all, very well thought out, but totally WRONG.
Everyone is murdered and I mean EVERYONE. Except for Jesse and baby Holly. So Jesse is left to care for Walt’s baby, which will be spun off into a multicam, laugh-tracked sitcom on CBS that will air after Big Bang Theory.
October 4th, 2011 at 11:51 am
It will end with “The Others” kidnapping Walt.
October 4th, 2011 at 12:06 pm
It’s hard to believe that such an intricately written show would use the lazy technique of “things happen offscreen, giving us the ability to surprise without really trying”, but it kinda happened this week and that’s a bummer. I credit that to the writers being in a corner because they wrote these episodes before they knew there would be a final 16 episodes.
Having said that… I think it’s Walt, for the above and a few other reasons:
- Walt’s gun spinning happened early in the AM, when he was alone, solely trying to cook up a plan. That’s the same time a 20-something kid would be sleeping in, making it logical Walt went over to Jesse’s house and snagged the cig, planted the ricin and got out.
- Walt left the gun on the pillow, leading to the dramatic showdown he thought he could talk Jesse through.
- The writers of the show didn’t want the audience to know it was Walt at the time of that showdown, because they didn’t want us to root for Jesse killing him (yet), which we would have done if we knew Walt poisoned Brock.
- In the episode recap with the actors on amctv.com, Giancarlo (Gus) is explaining the chapel scene and he says “then Gus finds out that the boy was poisoned”, indicating he didn’t know beforehand.
- It is almost certainly ricin, because in the scenes from the season finale, you see Jesse in an interrogation room, a place you go when you magically guess a little kid has been poisoned by an illegal substance. And not a lot of things send a kid to the ICU in a matter of hours. Also, when a random thing intercedes in a show to cause trouble for our characters, 99% of the time, the show shows it happening (usually from the perspective of the random thing) so you can see the chaos approaching and dread it.
- Gus’s walkaway is one of two things: “Wow, that kid figured it all out, made a plan and has laid a booby trap for me”, or “This whole thing smells bad, I’m out of my comfort zone and this kid seems to have a plan I don’t know about”. If Gus knew anything was afoot or that Jesse could sniff him out, he would have left the car guarded or watched.
- Lastly, Walt’s exhausted despair at missing the chance to bomb him is the reaction of someone who knows he did a terrible thing to get his chance.
October 4th, 2011 at 4:02 pm
Plus, if Brock had taken a dose meant to kill a full-grown man (Gus), he would already be dead. Accident is out. Of Gus and Walt, who would more likely know how much ricin to give Brock to keep him alive but seriously hurt? Walt.
Epic TV. Epic anything. They don’t make Emmys big enough for shows like this.
October 4th, 2011 at 4:28 pm
I don’t think Brock is poisoned. I think it’s a coincidence. I think the way Gus got back at Walt for telling the DEA was to start what he said he’d do. This is why Tyrus got the ricin cigarette, gave it to the rogue DEA agent, and he gave it to one Ms. Skyler White.
Need to watch it again, but I don’t think we saw Skyler after that cig…
October 4th, 2011 at 4:56 pm
Oh, snap, Austin. Oh, dang.
October 4th, 2011 at 6:20 pm
Walt had to conspire with Saul. Saul told him how important the boy is to Jesse. Jesse’s right — Saul’s bodyguard did lift the cigs. And that plant that Walt’s gun pointed to isn’t random. It’s important.
October 4th, 2011 at 6:28 pm
I think among the arguments for Walt being guilty, this is the most persuasive piece online. However, please consider these points as well. The laugh you mention, the laugh Walt lets off when he is in the crawl space and then again when Jesse is in his house, that’s the laugh when Walt is totally fucked. When he realizes he has been outplayed, when he sort of accepts his death. He was genuinely impressed how Gus got Jesse to kill through Broc, or so he believes. And you also mention Scarface. How Walt will transform into a monster like Scarface. But if you remember, Tony Montana’s eventual downfall starts from his refusal to kill a family. Remember, he was supposed to blow up that journalists car, but when he sees the journalist with his family he refuses to do it, and instead blasts that fool with the remote control. Scarface is a badass, not a monster. Please check out my blog too. Gave you a positive shout out. planethozz.blogspot.com
October 4th, 2011 at 7:10 pm
It doesn’t matter to me who poisoned him, I just really hope Brock pulls through.
Unless Brock is Veena Sud.
October 4th, 2011 at 8:17 pm
How has no one yet commented about when Saul’s bodyguard frisked Jesse? This is the age of DVR! Rewind it and watch, you clearly see at the end of frisking, he pulls back his left hand and puts his hand in his pocket. Isn’t that a bit suspicious? Why else would you frisk someone, get pushed off by Jesse and called off by Saul, and immediately put your hand in your pocket if you had nothing in your hand?
October 5th, 2011 at 5:14 am
I think Sauls body guard switched Jesses pack of cigarettes under Walts orders. And Walt did something to Brock but not using ricin.
October 5th, 2011 at 5:16 am
And Austin that’s a good catch, but I don’t know if it’s deadly if you smoke it.
October 5th, 2011 at 2:06 pm
Where does Mike fill in all of this?
October 5th, 2011 at 2:35 pm
Mike’s incapacitated. The doc in Mexico gave him the out: “he won’t be traveling for some time”. The timeline is such that this is all happening days after the cartel slaughter.
October 5th, 2011 at 2:53 pm
One point on the pat down – the bodyguard puts his hand back in his pocket from patting Jesse’s right side. Later in the episode, Jesse pulls the cigs from his left side. Smokers don’t change sides of their bodies where they put their cigs.
Also, that scene happened way late in the day, it may be a second part of a plot, but there is no way from the patdown to Jesse on the couch can Brock get poisoned and feel the effects badly enough to go to the hospital.
October 5th, 2011 at 7:44 pm
Are you a smoker? I change it all the time, mostly depends on what I’m wearing.
This has been an excellent thread. Right after the episode I considered Walt doing it but then dismissed it, and I was pretty solidly in the Gus did it camp. But this has made me rethink things, at the least. The Gus story does seem way too complicated.
October 6th, 2011 at 2:50 pm
A few thoughts:
1. Based on the detailed storyline of the show in the past the cigarette/poisoning situation seems oddly vague.
2. Walt has been capable of a lot of things but poisoning a child would be way out of character. Also, Walt has been a terrible liar throughout the series whether its with Skyler, JR, or Hank, but in the scene with Jesse he seems 100% sincere.
3. The possibility of Saul being involved in the poisoning makes even less sense. Saul is all about money and has zero interest in getting his hands dirty with this. I doubt he is even on Gus’s radar.
3. The possibility of Gus finding out about the cigarette, lifting the cigarette, AND somehow poisoning Brock seems farfethced as well.
In the end I would guess either Gus poisoned Brock or something completely different happened.
October 6th, 2011 at 8:48 pm
A tad late, but I just want to know where this show got the gall to make me think cigarettes were deadly.
October 9th, 2011 at 5:57 am
My crazy theories are these:
1) I think Tyrus is a traitor working for the cartels and stole the cigarette and poisoned Brock to split up Gus and his cooks, getting revenge for the mexican poisonings.
2) I think Ted’s still alive, will go into protective custody and spill the beans on Skyler, forcing her to choose between prison (which she has made clear she would do anything to avoid) and grassing on Walt.
I think the season 5 storyline will basically be Walt trying to kill Skyler, or deciding whether he has to. Unless she has already smoked a ricin cigarette.
The only other possibility I can think of is that Saul poisoned the kid, but I cant think of why. Saul is the only one with regular access.
October 9th, 2011 at 7:58 am
The final episode picks up with walt on the roof just waiting as Gus and gang go back into the hospital to talk with Jessie not knowing the boy dies Jessie kills all three and the show takes off from their , Gus vehicle is still loaded and will come into play when some of his cronies come after Walt
October 9th, 2011 at 10:08 pm
Spoiler
“It was decided upon when Walt spun the gun for a third time, and it stopped on a plant, a harmless fixture in the background.”
Damn you, you magnificent bastard.
October 9th, 2011 at 10:11 pm
Well done, sir.
October 9th, 2011 at 10:24 pm
ummmm can we just say NAILED IT!!!
October 9th, 2011 at 10:42 pm
Told you suckas! “Walt wouldn’t sink that low”. Shut up people, the show creator said himself he was turning Mr Chips into Scarface. Take a hint. Saul’s bodyguard did lift it off Jesse. You lose, dvr wins.
October 11th, 2011 at 5:29 am
I nailed it haha. Number 20 on the comments
November 2nd, 2011 at 6:11 pm
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